San Francisco Moves a Step to the Center
Findings from The Standard Voter Poll - Fall 2022
"I still love this city but it's so much worse than it used to be..."
As San Franciscans struggle to untangle their frustrations about homelessness, crime, housing and post-pandemic work and life, voters are angry at city leaders and increasingly support law-and-order policies.
In the charts, videos and stories below, the second San Francisco Standard Voter Poll explores the shifting mindsets and priorities of residents in the run-up to the November 2022 General Election.
Overview
- Voters place the blame for the city's complex and intertwined problems squarely on the shoulders of elected officials. READ MORE
- Persistent concerns about crime and personal safety are pushing voters to support more traditional law-and-order policies. READ MORE
- District Attorney Brooke Jenkins enjoys relatively strong support and holds a comfortable lead in the race for DA—but a significant number of voters remain undecided. READ MORE
- Voters say a lack of services and City Hall are to blame for the city's seemingly intractable homelessness problem. READ MORE
- The slow recovery of Downtown is a major source of worry for all city voters, with those in the tech sector particularly worried. READ MORE
- Asian voters are taking the lead as the most significant force shaping San Francisco’s electorate today. READ MORE
- Faults and all, many residents are still happy living in SF and are united by a love of the city's food, parks and lifestyle. READ MORE
“San Francisco city leaders need to get their act together and start to make some real changes in the city because this is not a place that I'm proud to call home anymore.”
Keep reading for more insight...
November Election
District Attorney Jenkins Rides a Post-Boudin Wave
Mayor Breed's appointee leads the race but most voters undecided
A few months after San Franciscans booted former District Attorney Chesa Boudin from office, voters seem cautiously optimistic about his successor, Brooke Jenkins.
Favorability ratings for the Mayor Breed-appointee far outstrip that of her predecessor: More than half of voters say they approve of DA Jenkins (56%), compared with less than a third who supported Chesa Boudin back in May.
“I have faith in our new DA and the police working together.”
But support might not equal votes, as less than a third of voters say they plan on choosing Jenkins on the ballot come November. Jenkins polls at 28% with likely voters, but nearly 60% of San Francisco voters say they are not yet sure who to pick.
JFK Drive May Stay Car-Free
More voters say Golden Gate Park’s main street should stay a promenade
During the pandemic, John F. Kennedy Drive became the center of a costly and controversial debate about allowing car traffic on one of Golden Gate Park’s busiest roads. Though the Board of Supervisors decided in April to keep cars off JFK Drive, the fate of the road now rests in voters’ hands.
Nearly half of respondents (48%) favor keeping JFK Drive car-free, though a sizable portion (38%) preferred reopening the road to car traffic. When looking at likely voters, the margin narrows: 40% of likely voters want to see car traffic return.
"What Rec and Park has done to improve our city's parks has been incredible in every way—SFMTA's slow streets, too."
Support for cars—or a lack thereof—varies by demographic. Young adult voters aged 18-34, bike riders, tech workers and regular visitors to Golden Gate Park are the most invested in seeing JFK Drive stay car-free, while more seniors, parents of local schoolchildren, homeowners and Independents and Republicans favor reopening the road.
YIMBYs Take The City
Voters’ desire for new housing may sway ballot measures
The poll finds SF voters voicing their pro-housing stance, a viewpoint shared by YIMBYs, a group of housing advocacy supporters represented by the acronym “Yes in My Backyard.”
About 41% of registered voters say they support “any type of housing,” while nearly a third say they would prioritize “only affordable housing” sold at below market-rate prices to lower-income individuals. The latter stance is especially popular among progressives in SF.
Poll findings show residents who identified with the YIMBY perspective were mostly in the tech industry and tended to be millennials, white men who attended college, gay or bike riders.
City Hall
Report Card
Voters Turn on Mayor Breed & City Hall
Trust in government is low, and approval ratings drop further
With high living expenses, ongoing homelessness and housing crises, and rising safety concerns, many voters now see City Hall and other public institutions as responsible for the city’s woes.
The Board of Supervisors and Mayor London Breed, in particular, are bearing the brunt of the blame. More than a third of voters strongly disapprove of Mayor Breed’s job performance (compared to 25% in the spring), while 46% percent of voters now strongly disapprove of the Board of Supervisors’ work.
“San Francisco city leaders need to get their act together and start to make some real changes in the city because this is not a place that I'm proud to call home anymore.”
Approval of the city’s police department and public school system also slipped over the summer, with both showing net negative ratings. DA Brooke Jenkins was the only public official to come away from the summer with a net positive approval rating of 12%.
SF Schools Get Middling Grades
Parents are even more unhappy with SFUSD
San Francisco’s public schools faced a myriad of challenges throughout the pandemic—from the difficulties of online learning to poor attendance rates and a worsening chronic absenteeism crisis.
Trust in SF’s public school system continues to erode among voters. Just under a third of respondents say they approve of the city’s schools, a 7% decrease from levels seen in May.
“We should not spend more money on homeless than we do on our children's education.”
Approval of the city’s police department and public school system also slipped over the summer, with both showing net negative ratings. DA Brooke Jenkins was the only public official to come away from the summer with a net positive approval rating of 12%.
Approval ratings sink even further when looking at the sample of voters who are parents of local public schoolchildren. When comparing the difference between approval and disapproval ratings, SFUSD parents grade the city’s public schools at a -52% net approval, compared to a -38% grade from all voters polled.
Comments voiced to researchers emphasized the frustrating and distracting web of politics surrounding the public school system, rather than performance in the classroom. But when it comes to academic performance, there is some cause for cautious optimism: Public school test scores and grades saw modest pandemic-era gains.
Top Concerns
Voters Lose Faith in City’s Homeless Solutions
Leaders and agencies—not nonprofits—are blamed
Homelessness and crime consistently rank as the top concerns for voters in San Francisco: The two crises were tied as the top things city leaders could change to improve voters' quality of life. And the two issues are intertwined: 71% of poll respondents say that seeing more unhoused people on the streets makes them feel less safe, as well as sad about the state of the city (77%).
While voters are united in their concern about homelessness, San Franciscans are less certain about what the right solution really is and who is to blame.
“I've been here 27 years and love San Francisco but the crime and homelessness is seriously depressing.”
Many seem to recognize the Sisyphean task at hand: More than half of San Francisco’s voters believe that there is not a clear solution to the problem, and about 63% of voters say that City Hall doesn’t understand how to solve it.
But voters also are skeptical of City Hall’s management of the crisis, as many think local officials’ recent efforts have been mired by poor spending decisions, internal gridlock and hampered by policies that are simply too progressive.
San Francisco residents share their top concerns in video interviews conducted on Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022.
Nevertheless, San Franciscans say the biggest factor driving the homeless population locally is a lack of mental illness care. Others backed policies that aim to reduce the prevalence of drugs on the streets. Three-fourths of voters supported implementing California’s CARE Court, while more than 60% said they supported deploying intervention teams to decrease overdoses and resolve mental health crises.
Policies and Politics
Safety Concerns Drive “Tough-on-Crime” Tactics
Voters log increased support for hardline policies
Amid rising concerns about homelessness and crime, half of San Francisco’s voters report feeling less safe in the city than they did one year ago—feelings which have driven the popularity of certain “tough-on-crime” policies.
“I'm a lifelong Democrat. SF has taught me the importance of law, order and standards of conduct all of which need a resumption of heavy enforcement. The city has become too soft-hearted and fails in delivering basic services for law-abiding taxpayers.”
Last month, prosecutors under DA Jenkins threatened to pursue murder charges against dealers who sold drugs that caused a fatal overdose. Though SF's judges have consistently shot down these efforts, 69% of voters now say they support such a policy, possibly in reaction to the rising amount of fentanyl on SF streets.
The majority of respondents also responded favorably to increased police presence and private surveillance access, as well as deploying unarmed neighborhood safety ambassadors and requiring city-issued permits for street vendors.
The growing support for tough-on-crime tactics, matched with former DA Chesa Boudin’s recall in June, indicates that many San Franciscans are moving closer to the political center when it comes to crime and safety—a fact underscored by the 50% of voters who said that the homeless, crime and drug crises have made their political views less progressive.
Nearly One-Third of SF Voters Don’t Know Their Supervisor District
With five Board of Supervisor seats on the Nov. 8 ballot, The Standard’s Voter Poll shows a big gap between the SF voters who are involved in local politics—and those who aren’t.
One statistic stands out: 30% of SF voters do not know which supervisor district they live in.
"Supervisors should be city-wide instead of by districts—nothing gets done."
The cause for the political apathy? Some say it’s San Francisco’s historically transitory population, consisting of young folks and transplants with little stake in the city—many who might be more concerned with SF’s urban lifestyle than its local politics. Others say that this is par for the course in SF, where voters naturally prioritize top-of-ticket elections over local races.
Lack of political knowledge doesn’t necessarily equate to a lack of voting, however. The Standard’s Poll found half of 'Don’t Know' voters do say they follow local political news “somewhat” closely, just not “very” closely as 53% of In-the-Know voters do.
Economy and Work
Downtown’s Worries Weigh on SF Voters
Concern for SF’s economic challenges is mixed
With millions of square feet of empty downtown office space, thousands of laid off employees and an abysmal return-to-office rate, belt-tightening efforts across SF businesses reflect a national economy and tech market in flux, with San Francisco sitting at the eye of the storm.
Most voters say the emptiness of Downtown worries them, and that share only grows for tech workers: 52% of tech workers say that news about layoffs is unsettling, and three-fourths are concerned about Downtown’s slow recovery.
"SF is very good at complaining about critical global problems, but it's the tech sector that actually works on solving them. And it's such a footgun to kick those folks out."
Concern for the tech industry is not universally felt, however, with less than half of respondents claiming to be proud of SF as a center for “innovative business.” Tech workers make up about 17% of poll respondents, and they sometimes receive lukewarm support from San Franciscans: More than 40% of voters wish the city were less dependent on the tech industry.
Yet, recent efforts by SF’s political leadership indicates City Hall’s growing concern for the tech industry and local economy, especially as the city emerges from pandemic challenges.
Hybrid Work Becomes the Norm
SF now prefers some office time to fully-remote schedules
Remote and hybrid working started as a pandemic modification but has quickly become the preferred work lifestyle in San Francisco. Though 39% of working San Franciscans say they go to their workplace every day, nearly two-thirds work from home either every day or on a hybrid schedule.
Tech workers seem to have the most workplace flexibility, boasting significantly higher remote working rates than the city average: just 11% of tech workers go to their workplace every day, while nearly half say they work from home daily. These numbers correspond with the rising number of empty skyscrapers and unused commercial space sitting in SF’s downtown—many of which used to house big tech companies.
The favorability of hybrid work also reflects evolving attitudes toward Covid, particularly when compared to previous polling. Around 29% of respondents now say they are not all concerned about Covid and are living their life as if it never happened, a 10% percent increase from polling in May.
Community and Identity
Asian Voters Take the Reins of SF Politics
Safety woes push the massive SF voting block to support law-and-order policies
Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters—comprising 36% of San Francisco’s population—account for 40% of the city's voters. The community has long been a powerful political bloc in the city, serving as a bellwether for tight elections and local politics. When voters ousted Chesa Boudin from his position as the city’s top prosecutor, for example, nearly two-thirds of AAPI voters supported the recall effort.
Ahead of the November election, The Standard’s poll showed that more Asian voters feel "extremely motivated" to vote than they did in the spring. Concerns about safety, as well as reading news about anti-Asian hate crimes, may be the top forces driving AAPI voters’ increased political involvement this fall.
“The fact that this city is covering up hate crimes against the Asian community is disgusting.”
Asian American voters also support harsher criminal justice policies and the city leaders voters think will back them: The net approval rating for DA Brooke Jenkins is 12% across San Francisco, but double that for AAPI voters (24%). Asian voters are also more likely to believe that SF needs more police and that the city’s top problem is crime.
Recent poll numbers indicate that Asian voters continue to skew more conservative than the average San Franciscan, both in terms of political identification and in their views on criminal justice policies and homelessness.
LGBTQ+ Voters Continue Tradition of Political Involvement
With numerous LGBTQ+ candidates on the ballot, queer voters reconsider representation
With its rainbow-painted sidewalks and numerous LGBTQ+ cultural districts, San Francisco is often seen as the queer mecca of the United States. In politics, SF’s queer community has been a particularly active force in shaping both local and national conversations surrounding marriage equality, gender equity and other progressive values.
This November, San Franciscans will see many LGBTQ+ candidates on their ballots—including two transwomen and an HIV-positive gay man in the District 6 Supervisorial race alone. But with a historic number of LGBTQ+ candidates and elected officials, choosing who to vote for might be more complicated than prioritizing identity representation alone.
“SF is a beautiful city. I think it could be much better if we could be more radical, go deeper to the root of our problems, rather than blaming whatever current administration is in charge...”
The Standard’s Fall Voter Poll found that LGBTQ+ voters tend to lean more progressive than the average San Franciscan—though compounding issues of crime, homelessness and drug usage have pushed some queer voters closer to the center.
The Kids Are Alright: Younger Voters Take City Politics by Storm
Gen Z and Millennial San Franciscans push city politics left
Voters aged 18 to 34 are San Francisco’s most progressive age group but they still struggle to be represented at the polls. A large chunk of Gen Z's "zoomers" have yet to reach voting age; voter turnout among younger generations remains abysmally low nationwide; and few elected officials in SF identify as a millennial or Gen Zer.
Yet, younger San Franciscans are increasingly vocal about issues like housing affordability and criminal justice. The majority of millennials and Gen Zers support affordable housing policies, while remaining more skeptical of the police department and tough-on-crime policies.
“I currently live with three roommates while being a full-time teacher and just wish I could afford at least a studio on my own.”
But do these concerns actually motivate young voters to go to the polls? That’s less certain, with less than half of younger voters reporting feeling “extremely motivated” to vote—a figure significantly lower than that of older generations.
Life and Living
Food Unites the City
Tasty meals are something everyone in SF can get behind
Though plenty of issues divide and challenge the city, there’s one thing that brings San Franciscans together: food.
And SF’s commitment to keep eating and drinking “fresh” is impressive. Fully 83% of San Franciscans polled say they go to restaurants regularly, with 58% making a habit of hitting a farmers' market for fresh goods. Another half of city residents say they visit bars and happy hours regularly.
"I love this city. I don't want to live anywhere else. The people are warm and welcoming—and the food is great."
The key to SF’s culinary attractiveness? Variety. From a fancy date under the big screen at Foreign Cinema to a pink box of dim sum from Good Luck, a pillow-sized burrito from La Taqueria to gooey kouign amann from B. Patisserie, San Francisco packs big-city eats into its svelte 7-by-7-mile figure.
Poll respondents dished up the SF foods they can’t live without—a list that includes the usual suspects and savvy selections as well.
Dog Owners: A Unique Breed of Voter
More voters have dogs than kids here’s what drives their votes
Dog-owning voters in San Francisco stand out in several ways, from their demographics to their politics. An estimated 22% of SF voters own at least one dog, outnumbering the city’s population of parents by 5%.
The perception of increased homelessness, crime and drug use on the city’s streets has made many dog walkers more nervous—and potentially less progressive than before: More than 80% of dog owners feel less safe in the city, and nearly two-thirds say that they are now less progressive than they were a year ago.
“Being a dog owner, I'm very concerned about [drug needles]. I don't want my dog walking [and] getting stuck with those needles.”
But do these stances on public safety mean that San Francisco dog owners are definitively moving to the right of center, politically? Though one expert says that might be a bit of a leap, the poll findings show dog owners are highly supportive of law-and-order policies.
About the Poll
The Methodology Behind the SF Standard Voter Poll
The San Francisco Standard Voter Poll aims to provide new insight into the minds of the local electorate. Fielded by Embold Research from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7, 2022, the poll surveyed 944 registered voters in English and Simplified Chinese about their opinions on the city, its government and its challenges. The poll updates many of the findings of The Standard's Spring 2022 Voter Poll.
The Fall 2022 poll findings are representative of San Francisco’s registered voter population within an error range of +/- 3.9%. Click here to get more details about the methodology.
Reuse of findings is permitted with the following attribution: “The San Francisco Standard Voter Poll, Fall 2022.” Contact SF Standard Research for more information.
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