Mapping the Money in SF's Assembly District 17 Race

Four candidates are vying for a coveted and rarely available seat in the state Assembly to represent San Francisco's District 17 after David Chiu resigned from the post to become city attorney. The Standard took a look at where the money is flowing in from and what this could mean before the Feb. 15 special election. Residents have already received mail-in ballots for this race, as well as for the Board of Education recall, and high turnout is expected.

Campaign contributors are a key metric that show a candidate's support level and which neighborhoods are backing them. The chart below shows the total number of contributions and the average contribution for each candidate, according to the Secretary of State's latest filings, which only cover contributors $100 and over. Hover a cursor over the map to see which candidate got the most contributions in each ZIP code.

Current Supervisor Matt Haney, regarded as the frontrunner, has the most contributions and super PAC spending behind him, according to the latest campaign finance figures.

Rounding out the candidates are startup executive Bilal Mahmood, former Supervisor David Campos and Thea Selby, a neighborhood activist and member of the City College Board of Trustees.

Haney leads contributions in most ZIP codes in the northern part of San Francisco. The San Francisco supervisor is leading in contributions from traditionally conservative, homeowner-heavy areas like Sunset and Pac Heights, and also in SoMa, the current district he supervises.

Hover over the interactive map to see how many contributions Haney has received in each ZIP code.

Campos, a former San Francisco supervisor, is leading contributions in the more progressive, renter-heavy areas such as the Mission and Haight neighborhoods. His supporters contribute smaller dollar amounts, indicating they are not special interest groups or deep-pocketed progressives. Campos' team said their fundraising has been impacted by his decision not to accept contributions from corporations, and that they have other unreported, smaller contributions.

Hover over the interactive map to see how many contributions Campos has received in each ZIP code.

Startup executive Bilal Mahmood has never been an elected official, and until recently he was regarded as a long-shot candidate. However, Mahmood has garnered hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions by the end of January and dropped more than $400,000 of his own money to make things interesting.

Mahmood has aligned himself with many of the causes that tech workers like, such as the pro-development YIMBY group and the Board of Education recall. Unsurprisingly, he is popular in ZIP codes where a lot of tech workers live: SoMa, the Castro and Noe Valley.

Hover over the interactive map to see how many contributions Mahmood has received in each ZIP code.

Thea Selby, an activist and member of the City College Board of Trustees, is running a true grassroots campaign. Her supporters contribute smaller dollar amounts, indicating they are not special interest groups or deep-pocketed progressives. She is not expected to be a serious threat to win the special election due to the institutional money at play and name ID of other candidates, but she could end up snagging key votes that shift the race.

Hover over the interactive map to see how many contributions Selby has received in each ZIP code.

Mahmood and Haney lead in total money raised

Total amount of money raised provides a broader overview of support because it shows how big a candidate's war chest is for voter outreach, like mailers and text and phone banking. Any leftover money could also be channeled over to candidate committees for the AD 17 general election in June and November, which will decide who holds the seat starting next year through the end of 2024. Campos' campaign has told The Standard that many smaller contributions are not reflected in the current totals in the Secretary of State's website.

Bilal Mahmood has contributed significantly to his own campaign

Contributions from any individual or organization are capped, but candidates can self-fund their own campaigns with an unlimited dollar amount—a common strategy for outsider candidates with business background like Mahmood. Over half of Mahmood's total money comes from his own wallet, while none of the other candidates have significantly self-funded. Mahmood's deep pockets signal that even if he doesn't win this special election, he could run again in this year's general election.

Super PAC support shows where big dollar special interest support is going

Super PACs, or independent expenditure committees, are specially formed committees that can spend an unlimited amount of money supporting or opposing candidates, so long as they do not "coordinate" with candidates. The only candidate with significant super PAC support is Haney—to the tune of $430,000, which reflects the extent that Haney has captured institutional support. David Campos has only received $1,950 in supportive super PAC spend, a sharp fall from the last time he ran in 2014, when he benefited from almost $150,000 in super PAC spending.

The only candidate who has received any opposition from a super PAC is Campos, at just $1,480. In 2014, super PACs spent more than $650,000 opposing Campos and $400,000 opposing his opponent, Chiu.

Overall, the race has seen relatively little super PAC involvement, perhaps because they're saving up to throw around money in the midterm elections this summer and fall. A competitive supervisor race in San Francisco could see super PAC spending rack up into the millions.

Who's behind the super PACs supporting Haney and Mahmood?

Haney's support comes mostly from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union (AFSCME), one of the most powerful unions across the country as well as here in California. The union has spent over $250,000 on TV ads supporting Haney. Another PAC formed specifically to support Haney has received significant support from other unions and individuals, including tech mogul Chris Larsen.

The super PAC supporting Mahmood, the GrowSF PAC, is mostly funded by other tech executives such as Y Combinator partner Karl G. Alstromer and venture capitalist Garry Tan.

About the Data

This data is based on campaign disclosure filings pulled Feb. 2, 2022. Candidates and super PACs must submit information on their contributors which is available in aggregate here. This data comes from the following committees: (1441574) David Campos for Assembly 2022; (1440610) David Campos for Assembly 2026; (1442544) Haney for State Assembly 2022; (1441330) Matt Haney for Assembly 2022; (1441315) Bilal Mahmood for Assembly 2022; (1441785) THEA SELBY FOR ASSEMBLY 2022. The numbers for Haney reflect a $178,152.03 contribution given from his general election committee to his special election committee. Currently, contribution information is available for individuals contributing at least $100 before Dec. 31, 2021 (though candidates may optionally make disclosures for smaller contributors as well). Reports for contributions above $1,000 are required to be made available within 24 hours.